30 Expert Picks

This line is available for a lot better prices if you shop around. I have to back the guys fighting for their lives tonight, and that means hitting the boards harder. KAT has followed up his poor rebounding games with double digit games throughout the series. History would tell us tonight he should get back on track. The SL model has him projected for 8 rebounds, and I expect four quarters of effort will get us there tonight.

Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.

The Nuggets have scored at least 112 points in three straight games after reaching 112 in one of their first seven this postseason. They have figured out the Timberwolves and win the series tonight in the Twin Cities. Great in-series adjustments by Nuggets coach Michael Malone.

With their season on the line, the host Timberwolves can't let Nikola Jokic destroy them again. He had 40 points and 13 assists in Denver's Game 5 win. Sending more help at Jokic should put more of a playmaking and scoring burden on Jamal Murray. He typically elevates his game on the road, anyway, having cleared this prop in nine of his last 10 road games. In this series, Murray posted 29 and 27 combined points plus assists in Minnesota.

The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 visits to Wrigley Field, but I like them to get off to a good start against Justin Steele. The lefty injured his hamstring on Opening Day and this will be only his third start since returning. Last Saturday in Pittsburgh, Steele gave up three homers and six earned runs in just four innings. He sports a 5.43 FIP this season. Back the Pirates and impressive rookie Jared Jones (2.68 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) to be tied or ahead after five innings.

Don't hit the panic button yet Rangers fans as all is not lost even though Carolina has stormed back (pun intended) to win the last 2 games -- that's reflected in the market. The Canes closed -141 in Game 4 and are now out to -166; I'm surprised to see how inflated the price has become in this spot. We know the Rangers' underlying metrics never look good, but that's by design for a team not built on puck possession. This is all about price for me and in a game I make -131, I'm more than willing to back the modest edge on the dog in desperation mode with the better goaltender even if the Blueshirts need to be better at 5-on-5.

Mike Conley (strained calf) is questionable after sitting out Game 5. He was present at shootaround Thursday. The expectation is that with Minnesota facing elimination, he'll play. But he could focus primarily on facilitating -- he's averaging 7.8 assists in the series -- and his minutes could be reduced. Look for Conley to try to get Anthony Edwards back on track after Ant's 5-of-15 performance in Game 5.

Newsflash: Gobert can't come close to containing Jokic and I'd be shocked if they decided to truly sellout to doubling him now. So does that mean more KAT on him? That's fine I think The Joker can take him off the dribble and to the rim. They can't collapse on him with Gordon and Murray and Porter shooting so well. This is a close-out game for me, and Jokic has another 30 in him knowing the importance of getting some RnR before the WCF. I see him taking matters into his own hands quite a bit and going to the line quite a bit

Jones doesnt have quite the strikeout numbers the last few times out, but he has been great. Steele is coming back from a long absence and I haven't loved what I've seen. If Jones can stay away from Bellinger's barrel I see a nice opportunity to make some plus money here.

Must acknowledge how the Oilers seemed to circle the wagons around backup goalie Cal Pickard in Game 4 after Stuart Skinner's flameout earlier in this series. Still, even as Edmonton has leveled matters, must note the Canucks have won six of the last eight meetings, and managed to claw their way back even at 2 on Tuesday before Evan Bounchard's very late game winner for the Oilers. Vancouver's own backup goalie, Arturs Silovs, seems to be gaining more confidence as the playoffs have progressed, and still believe Rick Tocchet is squeezing more from his troops than Edmonton counterpart Kris Knoblauch. Play Canucks on Money Line

We saw similar things from the Canucks in the opening round vs. Nashville, when they played at a bit slower pace to build a better defensive fence around backup goalie Arturs Silovs. Fast forward to the second round, and noted much the same from Edmonton in Tuesday's Game 4, as the Oilers were not their usual swashbuckling selves, playing a more cautious game as they tried to help their own backup goalie, Cal Pickard, who delivered a much-needed win. The pace thus seems to have slowed in this series that now features an unlikely pair of goalies who were facing off last spring in the AHL playoffs. Play Oilers-Canucks "Under"

The A's are never far from a losing streak this season as their offense is always liable to go on the blink. Such as in this midweek set at Minute Maid in which the Oakland offense has scored all of three runs combined across the past three games, all losses. On the plus side, the only win the A's have recorded the past week came in the debut of Joey Estes on the mound last week in Seattle when he worked five mostly-clean innings (one run, two hits) in an eventual 8-1 Oakland win. Meanwhile, note Cristian Javier has pitched much better at home (where his ERA is an even 1.00) than on the road thus far for the Astros. Play A's-Astros "Under"

Bucs righty Jared Jones is going to be excellent in his career, but he's still a rookie making only his ninth career start -- and the Cubs just beat him last Friday in Pittsburgh. This is too cheap on Chicago and Justin Steele at home to ignore (should be at least -150 in my opinion) as the Cubs are the superior team overall ... but it may get rained out.

Shohei Ohtani has smashed seven home runs in 85 at-bats at home this season. Tonight is Shohei Ohtani Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium. I have often seen many superstars go yard on said players' big night.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks closed it out here. They are gritty and gutty and have been the better team finding ways to win close games in this series. Of course, the last game in IND was a blowout win for the Pacers, with Brunson scoring just 18 points. I just don't see that happening again, and the Knicks are the more physical team and they are better at the little things. NYK getting 55% of rebounds (big margin) and getting to line 7 times more than Pacers/Game. Pacers are just 17-16-1 ATS as home favorite. I see this coming down to the last few possessions, where Brunson's elite shot-making and ability to draw fouls could be the difference.